Think growth! Getting ahead of the economy ...
It's 2009, and it looks like I'll be quite busy with a number of organizations who are focused on innovating their way into the future.
A few of the upcoming presentations include:
- the College Board -- the organization that runs the SAT education testing system among other things. This will involve a keynote for a select audience of 250, including Chancellors, Presidents, and senior admission officers for the largest colleges and universities in the US, including Duke, Cambridge, Harvard, Vanderbilt and the University of Texas, among others.
- a global leadership meeting for Yum! Brands (KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut) ; I'll be providing an opening keynote on the necessity for innovation and creative approaches to branding, marketing, retail design, food and consumer trends, among other issues
- a CEO-level strategy session for one of the world's leading education publishing companies.
- a keynote for the the annual conference of the Texas Credit Union League, on innovation strategies in the financial sector (yes, such strategies still exist!)
- a keynote for a chapter of the American Marketing Association, examining fast paced branding and consumer change
- the closing keynote -- and a second booking by -- the American Nursery & Landscape Association, on growth strategies and opportunities
- a strategy session on behalf of a global consulting firm for leadership from the world's largest insurance companies
Here's a quote to carry you into the year: Steve Jobs once commented, "If you look backward in this business, you'll be crushed. You have to look forward."
Think growth.
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Think growth! We get mail.....
I often get mail after speaking on stage to a group of people, or after hosting a small leadership meeting.
Here's one that just came in...
As one of the behind-the-scenes people working at the conference....I was asked to pass along my feedback/reaction to your presentation. In fact, as part of my responsibilities, I edit/rewrite the speaker biographies and, after the conference, write summaries of the presentations Croplife to post on their website -- so you'll be seeing the results once I've gotten the transcripts from the production company that tapes the speeches.That made my day! Think growth!In the meantime, some immediate feedback: your delivery was energetic and the subject treatment both thorough and fascinating; I especially liked your accompanying photos -- I found some images really stayed with me, such as the photo of the person sitting on a chair in a field, looking out across the landscape, wide blue sky, big clouds, etc. and the graphic image of a person in silhouette stepping from a darkened space across a doorway into the light. Great choice of images that carried a lot of meaning!
I can tell you that from where I sat, your presentation really seized the attention of everyone around me.
Congratulations on an excellent keynote -- considering the spin-off effect that's already occurred, it seems you're 'trending' ever upward for 2009!
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What does 2008 look like on January 1, 2015?
Ask yourself that question. The year 2008 will look like this: it was the year that a global economic tsunami caused massive change -- but it was also the year that saw the start of some pretty significant transformations.
As we go forward from 2008, it's important to appreciate that we're about to see a lot of big turns in the years to come in a wide variety of industries. Really, really big turns.
The world I like to use is "transformation."
I'm a big believer that we live in truly transformative times, and that the next decade is going to witness some pretty staggering changes. Much of this transformation will come about because of the scope of potential problems that loom.
Staggering challenges eventually lead to equally staggering solutions. Think of a few:
- Health care is an obvious huge problem, and the World Healthcare Innovation & Technology forum that I keynoted last week featured hundreds of innovative ideas. In 12 years, the health care system will look nothing what it looks like today. If you want a sense of what that is, read the healthcare trends post I did a few weeks ago.
- The manufacturing sector is in a transformative period. We'll see significant change because many of the assumptions of slow-paced manufacturing are dead; We'll see fundamental business model change -- think GoogleCar, a concept I've been speaking and writing about for some time.
- Energy and the environment. The linkage of these two issues is a great big step, and this will speed up the pace of scientific discovery, spawn new industry, and nurture growth.
- Pervasive connectivity. Device and location intelligence are at the tipping point. Think smart highway infrastructure, and other fascinating mass-connectivity infrastructure.
That's why innovation will be a core focus for organizations as they go forward into 2009. Innovation leads to growth. Growth is the only way out of this mess.
I was just quoted in an article for Farm & Dairy magazine: Keep your farm above water in 2009: Think change, noting:
"Growers who focus on innovation as a core value will find success," says futurist Jim Carroll. "Their innovation will focus on the triple-feature need for growth, efficiency and ingestion of new science."
Think growth!
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Strategy for early 09 - Set bold short term goals
Some day, the graph at the right wont' seem like something weird.
Maybe today it does seem out of place.
Yet I continue to notice that there are a significant number of executives out there who are "moving beyond the meltdown" stage and are pursuing active strategies to keep their team or group focused on innovating and opportunity. They keep phoning me, and bookings continue to be very strong well into 2009.
My role in many of these events: get people beyond the "anger and denial stage"; see opportunities from a longer term perspective; and start thinking about actions that we can begin now to transition out of the mindset which has settled in.
I just concluded a keynote in Washington, DC, and spoke to this trend and the need for action. My advice to this particular crowd included a slide:
SET BOLD SHORT TERM GOALS
Think about that. The economic news can literally smother the drive and enthusiasm of a team. Every day, folks are being beaten down by a surreal swarm of negative headlines. There's a smothering cloud of economic doom out there. People are dispirited, demoralized, and frankly, are coming in to work every day without any drive, initiative, and inclination to change.
Yet, we will one day be returning to a period of economic growth, and the graph seen here will make sense once again. Maybe it is already beginning to happen in some sectors. Maybe it might take some time yet.
Yet you can't let this attitude of pervasive negativity begin to clog up the arteries of your team. That's why you get out in front of this thing and SET BOLD SHORT TERM GOALS, That gives your team concise actions that can be pursued, and goals to achieve.
And it will leave your team well positioned for the economy as it does, inevitably, emerge from this current period of contraction.
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The future of healthcare - a concise, quick summary
I've got my keynote for the World Health Care Innovation and Technology Conference this week ; I blogged about it a few weeks ago with a futuristic post about health care.
A fellow over at the blog Our Own System found the post to be of interest. And in a blog post about it, he cut to the meat of my longish post, and provided links to a variety of Web sites that puts each trend in perspective. It provides interesting food for thought, so I'm reproducing a chunk of his post here. Make sure to visit his blog for the full post.
More informationJim Carroll had a very intriguing post at World Health Care Blog last week on health care innovation. The post is a keynote at a conference in 2020. His reflections provide insight to the ten biggest changes in health care since 2008. The changes are drastic. They’re innovative. They’re also exactly where we need to go.
Coming back to the present, the changes Carroll writes of can form a very interesting innovation agenda:
- Move to a system of preventative care.
- Enable virtual care through bio-connectivity.
- Embrace Health 2.0.
- Improve the management of change within the health care organization.
- Provide service in the health care environment.
- Connect every device.
- Utilize the cloud and its power.
- Deliver medical knowledge to providers as needed.
- Ensure the system can handle ever-increasing scientific velocity.
- Build optimism, always optimism.
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The plan for 2009? Think growth!
I'm keynoting a lunch tomorrow for a group of about 400 medical professionals. Their executive director saw me keynote a national conference of association executives two months ago.
That particular keynote was on a Friday in late September -- and the executives in the audience had just been pounded by a week of bad economic news. Since then, the drumbeat of negativity has become only more intense.
I got up that morning two months ago, took a look at the news headlines, and went out and did a barnburner of a speech for an audience of 500+, on the theme, "where's the growth, and how do we innovate for the future?" I was hugely upbeat, carried a positive message, and spoke to the audience at a very personal level about the necessity of having a strong personal compass to get through "this thing." I remember coming off stage, and thinking to myself, "wow, that was one helluva talk." As someone who earns a living on stage, you constantly self-assess as to how you've done.
I guess it did really strike a chord, since I'm still getting phone calls from folks who were in the room. So are the speakers bureaus who regularly book me into association events. The talk touched a lot of lives; it gave people an insight into the future that is all too easy to forget in this period of rapid global change.
People are hungering for a message of hope. Tomorrow, in my luncheon keynote, I'll take a good serious look at the current economic pain, but will also challenge the audience to think about the real, long term, substantive trends which provide an opportunity for future growth. A part of my talk is built on my "Where's the Growth?" document, originally released in February 2008. I just re-read the report, and can't think of where any of the fundamental assumptions are incorrect, except for one on "infrastructure." Maybe a company like Caterpillar might not see 30% growth because of overseas infrastructure spending.
But on the other hand, maybe they will! What is becoming increasingly apparent from the new US administration is that infrastructure spending is likely to be one of the key spending priorities to get the economy out of the funk and back into the future. That seems to be the approach of many governments worldwide. And hey, I had a post a few months ago, "Infrastructure is the new plastic." Although the essence of the post might seem a bit jaded given the current spending pullback, put the post into a 5 to 20 year perspective, and it is probably still bang on.
So for tomorrow and 2009, the key message?
Despite the challenges that you might find yourself in : THINK GROWTH!
My keynote tomorrow is titled, "Think Growth! The Good News for 2009"
Despite the relentless news headlines, there are many people out there who have an open mind about the future, and are actively innovating and thinking about how to capitalize upon it. I'm thrilled to be able to help them out.
More information:
- Read Where's the growth : global innovation opportunities for the long term
- Read Infrastructure is the new plastic
- Read 7 Things to Do Right Now as the Upturn Begins
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What's the future of education - and what should we do about it?
I've been pretty busy in the education sector. Two weeks ago, I provided an overview of key education trends for the Board and senior academic team of a major university. Next month, I'll be keynoting a conference with key leaders from Harvard, Yale, Vanderbilt and countless other leading colleges and universities from throughout the US. I'll also be spending time with the CEO and senior management team of a major player in the global education market.
All of these sessions have focused on the key trends impacting the world of education on a long term basis. It's certainly a far-reaching topic - education twenty years from now will likely look nothing like what it does today.
Consider the kids in this picture. Most of them will work in careers that don't yet exist; they'll have multiple careers throughout their lifetime; they'll constantly have to upgrade, enhance and rebuild their knowledge; they'll find themselves having to grab new knowledge on a "just-in-time" basis. Providing for such a reality requires a fundamental rethinking a lot of the current assumptions that are fundamental to the education system.
Where do I start such sessions? By challenging the audience or CEO team to ask themselves this question -- "what is the nature of the world our children will graduate into?"
I then build into that an overview of ten key trends impacting the future of education.
1. Rapid knowledge growth
As of late, I've been speaking "ever-growing sapiential circles" as the core trend that is driving rapid knowledge growth, and which is having the biggest impact on education.
The phrase comes from Warren Bennis, a distinguished professor, Southern California's Marshall School of Business -- he was referring to how the knowledge of a group tended to increase exponentially as new members were added to the group. What we are witnessing in the world today is a dramatic increase in our own human sapiential circles as a result of global connectivity.
Quite simply, we have connected the minds of people around the world who share an interest in a topic or issue -- they become a sapiential circle. And the result is dramatic -- for example, the amount of medical knowledge doubles every eight years; it is said that half of what an engineering student learns in their first year is obsolete or revised by the time they graduate.
As such, there are some fascinating issues at work here, with the key point being that teachers need to not only teach children knowledge, but they need to teach young people how they can continue to absorb new knowledge in the future.
In other words, we need to teach them how to learn. That's why one of my favorite phrases continues to be "learning is what most adults will do for a living in the 21st century."
2. Rapid career change
The rapid rate of knowledge growth is leading to rapid career change - - hence, the Australian observation that "65% of children in pre- school will be employed in roles and jobs that don't exist today." Given my understanding of change, I'd happen to believe that to be true.
I often work to ensure that educators understand that we must be prepared to engender a mindset that involves adaptability, flexibility; a mindset that embraces and does not fear constant change; a mindset in which they will view a future of constant change with wonder and awe, rather than concern.
Here's an Interesting statistic -- a survey of consulting engineering students revealed that most of them thought a long term career was one that lasted from 2 to 5 years....! The kids are already thinking about this -- we can instill them with our wisdom and guidance as educators in order that they can do it right.
3. Rapid career extinction
"Workers of the future will change jobs 19 times during their lives -- and parallel careers become the norm as people extract themselves from professions that are becoming extinct." That's from the Daily Telegraph -- and I think I'm already witnessing career extinction occurring all around me.
Educators need to know what is happening; how careers go extinct; how people survive extinction; and how they use extinction to thrive. Knowing this will once again help them in preparing young people to cope and thrive in a world of constant, relentless change.
4. Just in time knowledge
Related to this -- I've often explained that the incredible challenges young people will face come from the rapid rate of change that envelopes us -- and with so much change, we need to be prepared to learn darned quickly. Hence, we need to provide the skill of "just-in-time" knowledge" -- I explain what it is, and why it will be so critical ... and what the elements of "just in time knowledge" are, and how we can bring this idea into the classroom.
5. The challenge of globalization
I also explain that the rate of change is only going to speed up more as the BRIC and N-11 countries become more affluent, and take on more of a role on the world stage.....
This observation really does it justice -- "Two decades ago, there were relatively few technology graduates from Chinese and Indian universities. Yet, those countries now individually award more science and technology degrees per annum than America" ("Will offshoring shift innovation's frontier?" Electronic Engineering Times-April 2004)
Think about the impact! Suddenly, we are seeing the emergence of vast new numbers of people with scientific backgrounds -- what this is going to lead to is faster discoveries, faster innovation -- and even more challenges. There is a lot of new focus that is required to return certain economies to the forefront of scientific knowledge.
6. The impact of demographic issues
"The end of retirement." "Integrating Gen-Y into the workforce." Two of my recent articles, and there are certainly education issues that flow here.
Consider, for example, the issue of adult continuing education -- if it is likely that people will have to keep working past retirement, what do we do to continue to keep their knowledge evolving? Particularly given that a whole bunch of folks are going to find themselves needing to pursue new career and knowledge options given the recent economic meltdown.
7. Social / cultural change issues
Lots of interesting things going on here -- in Australia, 80% of children are taken care of by their grandparents. The same trend is evolving in North America. The fact is that the very nature of the family unit continues to change -- did you know that 2 out of divorces see the parent with the child moving back in with their own parents?
25% of British couples expect that they will be supporting their children into their 40's -- i.e. when their children are 40!
What is the impact of the changing nature of the family on the education system? Does the extended family imply unique, new economic challenges that might impact the demand for education? Are there new mentoring possibilities that can be pursued? That too is a good question to ponder.
8. Technological trends
I recently keynoted a conference on robotics and intelligent systems. I used this quote from a head researcher in Robotics at MIT: "In just 20 years the boundary between fantasy and reality will be rent asunder? Just five years from now that boundary will be breached in ways that are as unimaginable to most people today as daily use of the World Wide Web was 10 years ago".
It would be fascinating to put into perspectivewhat's coming here -- and the impact this will have on learning and the classroom.
9. Thriving with multiple careers
In my own life, I've coped with massive change -- I'm on my 4th career!
I've picked up all kinds of new skills through the years -- I've kept myself going through thick and thin when confronted by new issues and challenges where I have lacked knowledge.
The biggest challenge for an educator can be wondering, "how do I keep up" -- dealing with the velocity of change is critical, and adapting career skills at the same pace is an imperative.
10. A flexible delivery system
Agility and flexibility defines the educational organization of the future. As I note in the intro for my College Board keynote, "The "velocity" of knowledge is leading us to a world of "just-in-time knowledge"; the result being the reality that the relationship between educational institutions and students is set to change; primarily, from a period of short term, concentrated knowledge delivery, to one more related to the lifelong, ongoing replenishment and rejuvenation of knowledge. The challenge for institutions of higher learning is how to change their ingrained thinking, behavior, structure --and outcomes -- to adapt to this reality.
This is tough one for institutions; changing a centuries-old system is very difficult. One of my favorite quotes that I use is that "Perhaps the only person who likes change is a wet baby."
Yet change is inevitable, and I can certainly incorporate a good bit of discussion on attitudes to change, how to deal with change, and how to turn change into an opportunity.
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Is your future-pendulum swinging too far? I'll keynote a major agricultural conference tomorrow morning, with an audience of plant science companies as well as a group of grain growers. There are about 300-400 people in the room.
Here's a video clip from a keynote in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, where I spoke of the mindset that is often found in the world of agriculture -- in that there are "two types of farmers." Ask yourself -- no matter what industry you are in -- whether you see a similar mindset.
Then ask yourself if your own "future-positive" attitude has been sliding into the "apathetic / pessimistic" category as of late. Probably so!
But here's the thing: despite economic turmoil, there is still no lack of innovation in agriculture, as in many industries. Just read a bit of the backgrounder for this conference: agriculture is "currently in the midst of a technology explosion in plant science. Advances in genomics, combinatorial chemistry, high throughput screening, advanced formulation, environmental science and toxicology, precision breeding, crop transformation, nanotechnology, synthetic biology and bio-informatics are tools that will transform .... global agriculture in ways never before imagined. These technologies will also take agriculture beyond food and feed production, with applications in health, nutrition, medicine, energy, industrial materials and the environment."
You can't really disagree with anything there.
The challenge right now is that rapid global turmoil is challenging the ability of innovators -- such as those in the room tomorrow -- to keep momentum going; to see the the adoption of new ideas and methodologies. There's not a lot of innovation risk capital out there right now.
That's why a good part of message in the room tomorrow morning will focus on the "pendulum." It's likely that given fast paced economic events, far too many people are swinging over to the "apathetic/pessimistic camp," away from the "future-positive camp," and not thinking about the longer term implications of rapid-science driven innovation.
Back during the dot.com bust, many people convinced themselves there wasn't a lot of upside to come from technology. How wrong they were: their pendulum had swung too far. And that's what's going on in almost every single industry out there today. Innovators refuse to let that happen, and look for opportunities of disruptive innovation that they can pursue today.
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"Competing with analytics" - "the next billion dollar industry"
Last November, I released my "What Comes Next" trends perspective, outlining some of the significant trends that I believed would have the most impact in our longer term future. It's still worth a read, and I don't think the economic turmoil has changed anything written there.
So I admit I was surprised, given the massive quantity of doom-and-gloom thinking which is smothering creativity everywhere, when I came across this advertisement, offering a 3-day executive level course on 'Competing with Analytics." And right there, they've quoted my "What Comes Next" document, which was re-printed in Toronto, Canada's Globe and Mail earlier in January of this year: "Analytics is hot....it's where the next-billion dollar industries will be born."
I don't disagree with that assessment, and neither does IBM CEO Sam Palmisano.
As quoted widely, and from an article in eWeek, in early November he made a speech in which he "called on the next administration to invest more money in refurbishing the electronic grid system to reduce the amount of energy required to power it, make better use of information technology to reinvent the way healthcare is provided and green technology investments that would enhance traffic and mass transit systems to make everybody who depends on these systems more efficient."
Which, if you study it, revolves around analytics, linked to infrastructure. Where's the growth? We all know where it is!
Obviously Sam is a bit self-serving with his call to action, but the truth is IBM is one of many companies that is at the forefront of smart infrastructure development.
There's lots of growth out there. Innovators stay focused on opportunity, the future, and educating themselves on the trends that are going to have real impact in the future. Ten years back, you'll look at this advertisement and think -- "man, those guys were on to something."
I think I'll write the folks running the 3-day course and see if they will give me a complimentary admission. (-;
More information
- "What Comes Next: A Trends Perspective for the Future"
- Competing with Analytics course Web site
- Time for a new digital deal - eWeek
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CEO insight: "We've got the survival thing down. Now we're into phase two."
I was in a conference call yesterday with the CEO of a global organization ; I'll be doing a leadership session with them this winter. It's one of several pre-planning calls that I'll do with this client as I shape my remarks for their meeting.
I love the clarity of the CEO mind. At one point early in the call, he stated how quickly they're transitioning through fast-paced economic events.
"We established three strategic priorities. Number one, survive. Number two, innovate. Number three, grow. We've got the survival thing down. Now we're into phase two."
Phase two is the reason why they are having this leadership meeting, which has just been pulled together over the last several weeks. My role is that I'll provide them with an overview of key trends to think about; how I see other organizations dealing with fast paced economic change, not to mention my fundamental insight on "innovating in the high velocity economy."
The comments of this particular CEO certainly outlines the stark reality of the speed of the global economic pullback.
Yet, it also offers up some evidence to my theory that some organizations are going to come out of "this thing" quicker than most people think. Organizations that focus on innovation can act faster than they did in previous recessions. They've learned how to be more collaborative; they can share ideas and insight faster; they can react and re-react based on fast paced trends. The result is that they can try out a variety of strategies to re-align their business for new realities.
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Innovation, the auto industry and the new reality I've been talking to my clients for years about the problems with the auto industry manufacturing model, comparing the slow, ponderous mass-manufacturing techniques of Detroit to the faster, more nimble overseas competitors.
I dug this clip out from my July 2008 keynote in Sydney, Australia -- it's a good, quick hit on the different approaches to innovation in manufacturing.
Way back in 2003, I started talking about the "car company of the future," in the context of a "Google car." The clip seems timely now, as does a posting in July related to the video clip.
More information
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It's January 15, 2020: What Have We Learned About Healthcare in the Last Decade?
On December 8th, the 4th annual World HealthCare Innovation and Technology Conference 2008 will open in Washington, DC. The afternoon keynote address, by Newt Gingrich, former Speaker, U.S. House of Representatives, is built on the theme of "Innovation, Technology and Competition: Transitioning to a 21st Century Intelligent Health System."
I'm quite certain that Mr. Gingrich will offer some compelling thoughts on how to fix health care. And yet I'm certain that the prescription he offers will be much of the same old thinking that seems to dominate the health care agenda.
I'm the closing keynote speaker, on Wednesday, December 10th. I'm honored to speak at an event that includes Mr. Gingrich and other luminaries such as Scott McNealy, Chairman and Co-Founder, Sun Microsystems and Colin Angle, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder, iRobot.
What am I focussing on? My keynote will stress that right now is the time for big, bold, transformative thinking in the world of health care. We're on the edge of something pretty big, both in terms of the depths of the challenge, and yet with the scope of the innovative solutions and thinking that are coming to the marketplace. That's an important message, because it's hard to be an innovator right now anywhere, particularly within the health care industry.
Part of my job is to transform ideas -- so I just wrote an entry for the blog for this global conference, writing from the year 2020, looking back at what we learned in the previous twelve years. Here's what I wrote in 2020 about why the mindset of 2008 made for difficulties with innovative thinking:
At the time, the economic malaise that was settling in had caused most innovators to shrink away, convinced their ideas for the future had no place and time for consideration. Fear, mediocrity and staid thinking ruled the health care agenda; everyone spoke of applying the same old band-aid solutions in a different way to the same problems, with no obvious results in sight.
But where did we really end up with health care by 2020? Take a look and read the blog.
More information- It's January 15, 2020: What Have We Learned About Healthcare in the Last Decade?
- Future Medicine: Prescriptions for 21st Century Health Care
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What's next with financial, insurance and banking services?
This dude to the right? He's about to inherit a whole whack of money.
Indeed, before the financial meltdown in the last month, the slides I used at a wide variety of financial, banking and insurance conferences noted that the issue of inter-generatlonal wealth transfer is a huge challenge and opportunity. Estimates suggest that we'll see $12 to $18 trillion in money moving from one generation to another in the next 12 years ..... put that up against US GDP of $12 trillion. Cut in half for the stock market crash, and it is still a staggering number!
By 2053, the number will total $130 trillion - and the funds will move to a far more independent, financially savvy, technically sophisticated generation.
How do you maintain your relevance to this next generation customer? Through innovation.
Here's something of interest: despite the caustic conditions throughout the global banking and insurance industry, there are still a huge number of senior executives who are focused on the key trends that will impact them in the future. They do know the one thing that I know to be true: one day the volatility in the banking and insurance sector will have gone away. Things will have calmed down, and we'll have a banking, insurance and financial sector that is "back to normal." Or, at least, a "new normal."
And we also do know this: once we come out of "this thing," organizations will be back to the old-fashioned, pre-hedge-fund-derivative-fuelled ways of making money: by coming up with innovative new financial products and services that solve the problems of customers; by excelling at customer service; by launching and nurturing innovative new brands that resonate with customers; through deep, fast and transformative marketing campaigns that form unique relationships with customers. In other words, innovation will be the most critical measure of future success in the banking and insurance sector.
So how do we get there? I've had a few leadership retreats in the last two months with a number of global and national financial groups who are already thinking about these issues; they've asked me in for my thoughts on linking future trends to an innovation agenda as part of a leadership offsite. (Obviously, given fast paced trends, I'm not going into a list of companies. Suffice it to say, there are some senior leadership teams who are busy ensuring that their companies are ready for the next phase in financial services.)
What am I speaking about? Grabbing bullets from a few of the slides that I used:
Agility defines capability
- success is defined by ability to respond to rapidly changing products, markets, business models, rapid economic trends, competitive moves, skills issues
- innovation moves from more than just "products" to process, ad analytics, methodology, structure, capabilities, scalability, collaborative ability .... productivity
- scale faster
- deploy faster
- focus narrower
- business models will be continually redefined
- category dynamics and distribution models will be transformed and subject to external pressure
- products will be re-invented at a more rapid pace, particularly with fast changing actuarial assumptions
- brand perceptions will shift quicker, particular as new "influencers" in branding come to be more prevalent (Web 2.0 etc)
- target customers will be more challenging and far less loyal
Key point: financial services, banking and insurance innovation hasn't gone away. It's going to come back with a roar, and the leaders in this industry are positioning themselves now.
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"I'll pay you a premium if you can save me money!"
That's the new value proposition for today, and you'll do well to think about the phrase as you look to grow or maintain your top line.
The number one concern for many organizations today (beyond mere survival for some) is cost reduction.
If you can give them the chance to do this quickly, they'll be willing to pay you a premium to do so.
This line of thinking came to line when I spent time two weeks ago in Silicon Vally. I was there to speak to a group of CIO's from throughout the hi-tech industry.
I met a client from a few years back in the hotel lobby while checking in. He's now involved in a different IT venture. While catching up on things, I realized that this was the exact value proposition that his new organization was selling.
They've got a solution that, when implemented, can help organizations save quite a bit of money on their overall technology spend, Given the scope of the potential savings, and the fact that this company has maintained growth despite economic turmoil, they've got a key innovation strategy nailed.
You can learn from this line of thinking. The key things to think about:
- how can you partner up with your customers to help them achieve cost savings with what they do?
- how can you help them quickly achieve those cost savings : faster, say, than in the alternate economy of a few months past? Remember, faster is better.
- are there changes that you might make to your product/service line that can help to accelerate cost savings?
- can you innovate like mad -- thinking about what you do and how you do it -- to generate cost savings for those who rely upon you? you do it -- to generate cost savings for those who rely upon you?
Think about it in the context of any industry. If you are in travel/hospitality, and you offer cost savings with what you are selling, you've got a leg up on the competition. If you are selling a service, get the potential cost savings that the service provides out front, and clearly defined -- highlight them. If you are selling an industry solution, re-examine the cost savings that your solution provides -- and see what you can do to make them bigger.
Think about the phrase, and look for opportunity in it.
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100 Days of Innovation: Innovators master faster markets because they master fast failure
Think about it.
Google announced today that they were shutting down Lively, their Second Life 'wannabe.'
They brought the product to market earlier this summer. So it survived only about four months, before Google decided it wasn't going to work, and moved on. Noted Google's blog: "We've also always accepted that when you take these kinds of risks not every bet is going to pay off."
I was on a mailing list today where some folks were discussing this; they seemed to be shocked that Google would make such a decision in haste.
I wrote back, with what I think is a critical lesson on innovation.
- Innovators fail fast.
- Innovators who fail fast learn faster.
- Innovators who learn faster from faster failure master faster markets.
- Innovators master faster markets because they master fast failure.
And that's all you need to know about innovation. Or at least, one critical bit of knowledge in an ongoing commentary around 100 Days of Innovation.
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Kicking off 2009 with innovation as the CORE STRATEGY!
I've been confirmed as the opening keynote speaker for the 14th Annual Portfolio Management for New Products & Services Conference in Fort Lauderdale, February 2009.
The event is sponsored by the Product Development and Management Association, the membership of which are individuals responsible for product and service innovation throughout the corporate world globally, as well as from within the world of academia. It's a pretty influential crowd, and I'm honored that I will be able to share my insight with them. Previous keynote speakers have included G Lafley, CEO, Procter & Gamble; Mads Nipper, SVP of Product & Marketing Development, Lego Group; Gary Loveman, CEO & President, Harrah's Entertainment; and Tom Stewart, Former Editor in Chief, Harvard Business Review, among others. The PDMA is the publisher of the renowned Journal of Product Innovation Management, which is arguably the must-read academic journal that covers the latest issues with new product and service development.
This year, the conference theme tends to revolve around my entire focus on "innovating faster" -- "creating a high performance environment to fuel strategic growth and operational excellence."
"In the changing global economy it gets harder every day to develop winning portfolios that drive long term business value. The 14th Annual Portfolio Management for New Products & Services Conference will present a critical 360 degree view of portfolio management from the discovery phase straight through to commercialization. Learn to innovate faster, optimize resources, select the right projects, and ultimately develop a high performance environment that fuels growth & organizational excellence regardless of the economic conditions"...
The issue of faster time-to-market has become increasingly important with fast-paced economic change. With all the volatility, consumer choice can change quickly ; brand image can shift radically ; execution becomes critical. I'll focus on a variety of themes as to how I see organizations doing this.
Here's a key message in advance of the conference: it can be tough, right now, to be an innovator, particularly as organizations deal with the economic crisis. But, the big question is: do you start/continue to innovate now, or do you wait until conditions improve?
To me, the choice is obvious. I detailed this in my blog post, The Seven Stages of Economic Grief. I also addressed the issue in another earlier blog post, A Memo to the CEO, in which I stressed the need for a continued focus on innovation despite challenging times.
I think they are well worth a read again.
More information:
- Innovation and the "Seven Stages of Economic Grief?"
- Read the Memo to the CEO
- Visit the 2009 PDMA conference web site.
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Retail and consumer product innovation: a report from NYC
A few weeks ago, I keynoted an event for the Readers Digest Food & Entertainment group (who publish Everyday with Rachel Ray, and own and manage the popular online social network recipe site, AllRecipes.com) in New York City. The audience consisted of executives and creative types from Madison Ave advertising agencies, food and packaging companies and other organizations.
They've released a summary of the overall day; in addition to my own insight, participants included Katie Lee Joel (pictured on the right), author of the Comfort Table; as well as "supermarket guru" Phil Lampert.
I spoke to a variety of trends that are impacting retail and food markets; for example, the trend in which in store display technology -- a "new influencer" -- will come to influence how shoppers shop, faster than we think:
This new shopper is not only more scattered and more connected, but also faster -- scanning 12 feet of shelf space on average per second.In-store influencers will now evolve at the pace of the iPhone and the Blackberry, challenging marketers to keep up with the pace. Faster is the new innovation and innovation isn't just about new product design - it's about responding to fast-paced consumer change.
Marketing Implication: Marketers must work harder than ever to capture the attention of the consumer and make a connection. Brands must keep up with the pace of consumer change in order to stay relevant.
More information:
Read the RDA Food & Entertainings Consumer Food Symposium summary (PDF)
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Silicon Valley : Is innovation dead?
Last week, I spoke in Palo Alto for a a small, intimate dinner of a number of CIO's for a variety of companies based in Silicon Valley. The focus of the talk was "how to provide for a culture and focus on innovation during a down market?"
I spoke to this issue from a number of perspectives. One issue I touched on was the inevitability of a rebound in the fortune of IT. If we cast our minds out two to five years, or perhaps even sooner, there are certain key trends in which we see a massive amount of innovation:
- pervasive connectivity: we've barely scratched the surface of the era in which everyday devices gain connectivity and intelligence. The Internet enabled thermostat in my home is but a harbinger of what is yet to come. With it's own Web browser, it has become a fascinating tool by which energy usage can be more closely monitored. The same device is deployed throughout the Arby's chain, and offers a significant new method of controlling energy-spend.
- continued growth of mobile: One recent survey of consumers suggested that while they might be willing to give up buying the latest plasma TV, there was no way they'd give up mobile or the Internet. Mobile is weaving itself into daily life, sophisticated platforms are finally here, devices are fashion, developers are on board in a big way, and the emerging applications are either real and useful, or just a tremendous bit of fun.
- location intelligence: we're barely scratching the surface with this one. Every device around us is becoming connected (pervasive connectivity), and we'll gain knowledge as to its status through sensory awareness. Not only that : we'll know exactly where it is. Search for "location intelligence professionals" online, and you'll discover a group of people who understand how unique our future is set to be.
- computational analytics: I've written about this before, in the context of this being "the next billion dollar industry." I remain some of the biggest challenges we face and the solutions that we find for them -- in terms of transportation, energy and the environment -- will come from applying massive computing power and complex alogorithms to them. Think about smart highway infrastructure as an example: it would be ludicrous to not believe that we will see 5, 10, 15 or 20% incremental increases in energy conservation that will come from ever-more automated traffic systems.
- staggering new mass markets: six months ago, it was believed that in the next 10 years, 1 billion people worldwide would move into the middle class. Maybe it's only half that now : who knows? But 500 million is still a staggering number. There is plenty of potential for connectivity, mobile, hardware and software to newly emerging mass markets.
- bio-connectivity: if I were a betting man, I'd have my money on this trend. Simply put, the global health care system is massively broken. Ten years out, home health care will pre-dominate, supported by a sophisticated infrastructure of smart health care energy devices. Yes, I've written about this trend on this blog too; see below.
- transformational thinking: an entire generation has been stuck in an older paradigm of how to network; the election of a younger President, wired to the nation and the world, who thinks, interacts, moves, plans, and acts differently, sets even more velocity to the power of connectivity. The Internet, mobile, social networking and blogs changed an entire presidential race; they're set to change everything else in society on a continuous basis.
More information:
- Read about what happens When Thermostats get connected
- Read the article about bio-connectivity, The Doctor is in around the clock
- Read the article Minds of their own
- Read "Bioconnectivity and the rapid emergence of new markets"
- Read the article Command and Control - Opportunity Awaits Companies that Master Hyperconnectivity
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The economy and leadership: strategy meetings are happening NOW
I continue to see a lot of activity with inquiries and bookings for senior management / CEO leadership meetings.
This confirms my belief, which I have been posting in this blog, that there are many organizations out there who are determined to stay ahead of fast paced economic trends. Here's an example of a client request that came through this morning; they are looking for insight on:
- how can an organization succeed given the current world and marketplace realities by thinking and doing things differently relative to the following:
- how to use, and deploy and share resources in new creative ways from a variety of places to serve the most critical needs or during the most critical times
- how to employ a a non-traditional structure or organization design that is creative, flexible, different and nimble to support critical business priorities
- how to leverage key capabilities in new and different ways, either through developing them internally, outsourcing them or partnering in a type of hybrid manner
- someone who will provide a thought provoking point of view, with inspiration around new and different approaches to achieving the above
- can speak to trends in this topic arena, yet also cite some examples of companies that are acting or behaving in some of these innovative ways to achieve results
- someone who can push the thought agenda yet provide information that is deemed doable, possible, realistic and not too extreme of an approach
- a person who can deliver the information in a small group/ intimate setting with a "working session" format vs a large key note "speaker" address forum
I'm off later today to keynote just such a leadership meeting for a major accounting firm in the DC area; I just returned from Palo Alto where I gave a similar talk to a high-level group of Silicon Valley executives. More on that particular talk later, because I've been busy writing a post about "what comes next with tech."
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10 fundamental trends that don't change with the meltdown
You and I know that the headline on the left is going to run in newspapers and mainstream media one day. The BIG question is when.
So what are the trends that will drive future growth? Off the top of my head, there are several:
- growth markets will continue to emerge. Back in the 19th century, the head of the US Patent Office stated that "everything that can be invented has been invented." Such silliness. Right now, there are hundreds of thousands of new products, markets, industries and ideas being built and explored. The future isn't over. It's arrival has just slowed to a degree.
- leaders in existing markets will grow through innovation. My own gut feel is that there are a lot of organizations out there approaching this recession differently. They're innovating in their markets; they're working on customer retention; they're investing in customer service in order to keep competitive; they're talking about how to grow in a down market. I'm certainly seeing this given my advance bookings going forward. People want to talk about innovation and the future. That's a great sign that the recovery is underway.
- health care will see significant transformation, not to mention spending: health care is transitioning to a system of predictive medicine. This is a huge, long term, 20 year trend, but has big implications with the emergence of new careers, industries, professions, and companies -- DNA based medicine is a massive change. On top of that, the mere level of spending that is going to occur in managing the looming health care crisis will drive all kinds of growth, though the funding part of the equation will remain a big problem. The result? Lots of innovative thinking as to how to solve huge problems with unique solutions.
- green and energy will continue have more momentum. Some argue that the meltdown will defer everything having to do with these two efforts. I disagree; I think the corporate sector has discovered the cost benefit that comes from green projects, and so they will continue to invest, which will drive innovation. And I think globally, we've passed the point where people and their leaders believe that doing the same old thing as the past is going to continue in the future. I don't see leading edge research into solar, wind, and other alternatives slowing down any time soon. And the fascinating thing is that there is a lot of backyard, garage tinkering going on right now, and that's where the next product/market breakthroughs will come from.
- technology will continue to hyper-innovate: I've got six generations of Blackberry's that span about six years or less. They've got a slew of new products coming out just this month : they've got a very fast innovation culture. Likewise, iPhone's have become the coolest fashion statement on the planet for the younger demographic. The Internet-enabled thermostat I have in my home and chalet is the first step in a huge wave of pervasive connectivity. I don't see hi-tech innovation and R&D slowing down. Indeed, during the last recession, some of the biggest innovations -- the iPod -- emerged from the minds of those inventing the future. There are a lot more billion-dollar markets still to emerge.
- agility and flexibility will dominate: In the next several years, the manufacturing industry -- globally and locally -- will learn to do what Honda has done: focus on the rapid assembly and reassembly of capabilities, so as to more quickly change models and products to respond to fast paced consumer demand. As they do so, they'll undergo a fundamental transformation in their thinking, structure and capabilities that will ensure their success.
- the global idea machine will continue to influence innovation. Look, the Internet continues to have a profound impact on everything we do. Scientific discovery is speeding up; new discoveries continue to go forward at a furious pace. Eco-building design concepts are debated, shared, and then go global in an instant. From the global mind comes unprecedented innovation, new products, new companies and new industries.
- the next generation takes over. The boomers are a dispirited bunch right now; there's not a lot of passion and enthusiasm with some of them to change the future, particularly given the status of their 401K's. Some in the younger generation are witnessing their first ever generation, and its' probably pretty terrifying. (Thi