Think growth! Getting ahead of the economy ...
It's 2009, and it looks like I'll be quite busy with a number of organizations who are focused on innovating their way into the future.
A few of the upcoming presentations include:
- the College Board -- the organization that runs the SAT education testing system among other things. This will involve a keynote for a select audience of 250, including Chancellors, Presidents, and senior admission officers for the largest colleges and universities in the US, including Duke, Cambridge, Harvard, Vanderbilt and the University of Texas, among others.
- a global leadership meeting for Yum! Brands (KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut) ; I'll be providing an opening keynote on the necessity for innovation and creative approaches to branding, marketing, retail design, food and consumer trends, among other issues
- a CEO-level strategy session for one of the world's leading education publishing companies.
- a keynote for the the annual conference of the Texas Credit Union League, on innovation strategies in the financial sector (yes, such strategies still exist!)
- a keynote for a chapter of the American Marketing Association, examining fast paced branding and consumer change
- the closing keynote -- and a second booking by -- the American Nursery & Landscape Association, on growth strategies and opportunities
- a strategy session on behalf of a global consulting firm for leadership from the world's largest insurance companies
Here's a quote to carry you into the year: Steve Jobs once commented, "If you look backward in this business, you'll be crushed. You have to look forward."
Think growth.
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Think growth! We get mail.....
I often get mail after speaking on stage to a group of people, or after hosting a small leadership meeting.
Here's one that just came in...
As one of the behind-the-scenes people working at the conference....I was asked to pass along my feedback/reaction to your presentation. In fact, as part of my responsibilities, I edit/rewrite the speaker biographies and, after the conference, write summaries of the presentations Croplife to post on their website -- so you'll be seeing the results once I've gotten the transcripts from the production company that tapes the speeches.That made my day! Think growth!In the meantime, some immediate feedback: your delivery was energetic and the subject treatment both thorough and fascinating; I especially liked your accompanying photos -- I found some images really stayed with me, such as the photo of the person sitting on a chair in a field, looking out across the landscape, wide blue sky, big clouds, etc. and the graphic image of a person in silhouette stepping from a darkened space across a doorway into the light. Great choice of images that carried a lot of meaning!
I can tell you that from where I sat, your presentation really seized the attention of everyone around me.
Congratulations on an excellent keynote -- considering the spin-off effect that's already occurred, it seems you're 'trending' ever upward for 2009!
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What does 2008 look like on January 1, 2015?
Ask yourself that question. The year 2008 will look like this: it was the year that a global economic tsunami caused massive change -- but it was also the year that saw the start of some pretty significant transformations.
As we go forward from 2008, it's important to appreciate that we're about to see a lot of big turns in the years to come in a wide variety of industries. Really, really big turns.
The world I like to use is "transformation."
I'm a big believer that we live in truly transformative times, and that the next decade is going to witness some pretty staggering changes. Much of this transformation will come about because of the scope of potential problems that loom.
Staggering challenges eventually lead to equally staggering solutions. Think of a few:
- Health care is an obvious huge problem, and the World Healthcare Innovation & Technology forum that I keynoted last week featured hundreds of innovative ideas. In 12 years, the health care system will look nothing what it looks like today. If you want a sense of what that is, read the healthcare trends post I did a few weeks ago.
- The manufacturing sector is in a transformative period. We'll see significant change because many of the assumptions of slow-paced manufacturing are dead; We'll see fundamental business model change -- think GoogleCar, a concept I've been speaking and writing about for some time.
- Energy and the environment. The linkage of these two issues is a great big step, and this will speed up the pace of scientific discovery, spawn new industry, and nurture growth.
- Pervasive connectivity. Device and location intelligence are at the tipping point. Think smart highway infrastructure, and other fascinating mass-connectivity infrastructure.
That's why innovation will be a core focus for organizations as they go forward into 2009. Innovation leads to growth. Growth is the only way out of this mess.
I was just quoted in an article for Farm & Dairy magazine: Keep your farm above water in 2009: Think change, noting:
"Growers who focus on innovation as a core value will find success," says futurist Jim Carroll. "Their innovation will focus on the triple-feature need for growth, efficiency and ingestion of new science."
Think growth!
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Strategy for early 09 - Set bold short term goals
Some day, the graph at the right wont' seem like something weird.
Maybe today it does seem out of place.
Yet I continue to notice that there are a significant number of executives out there who are "moving beyond the meltdown" stage and are pursuing active strategies to keep their team or group focused on innovating and opportunity. They keep phoning me, and bookings continue to be very strong well into 2009.
My role in many of these events: get people beyond the "anger and denial stage"; see opportunities from a longer term perspective; and start thinking about actions that we can begin now to transition out of the mindset which has settled in.
I just concluded a keynote in Washington, DC, and spoke to this trend and the need for action. My advice to this particular crowd included a slide:
SET BOLD SHORT TERM GOALS
Think about that. The economic news can literally smother the drive and enthusiasm of a team. Every day, folks are being beaten down by a surreal swarm of negative headlines. There's a smothering cloud of economic doom out there. People are dispirited, demoralized, and frankly, are coming in to work every day without any drive, initiative, and inclination to change.
Yet, we will one day be returning to a period of economic growth, and the graph seen here will make sense once again. Maybe it is already beginning to happen in some sectors. Maybe it might take some time yet.
Yet you can't let this attitude of pervasive negativity begin to clog up the arteries of your team. That's why you get out in front of this thing and SET BOLD SHORT TERM GOALS, That gives your team concise actions that can be pursued, and goals to achieve.
And it will leave your team well positioned for the economy as it does, inevitably, emerge from this current period of contraction.
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The future of healthcare - a concise, quick summary
I've got my keynote for the World Health Care Innovation and Technology Conference this week ; I blogged about it a few weeks ago with a futuristic post about health care.
A fellow over at the blog Our Own System found the post to be of interest. And in a blog post about it, he cut to the meat of my longish post, and provided links to a variety of Web sites that puts each trend in perspective. It provides interesting food for thought, so I'm reproducing a chunk of his post here. Make sure to visit his blog for the full post.
More informationJim Carroll had a very intriguing post at World Health Care Blog last week on health care innovation. The post is a keynote at a conference in 2020. His reflections provide insight to the ten biggest changes in health care since 2008. The changes are drastic. They’re innovative. They’re also exactly where we need to go.
Coming back to the present, the changes Carroll writes of can form a very interesting innovation agenda:
- Move to a system of preventative care.
- Enable virtual care through bio-connectivity.
- Embrace Health 2.0.
- Improve the management of change within the health care organization.
- Provide service in the health care environment.
- Connect every device.
- Utilize the cloud and its power.
- Deliver medical knowledge to providers as needed.
- Ensure the system can handle ever-increasing scientific velocity.
- Build optimism, always optimism.
- It's January 15, 2020: What Have We Learned About Healthcare in the Last Decade?
- Read Our Own System: The Successful Innovation Agenda
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The plan for 2009? Think growth!
I'm keynoting a lunch tomorrow for a group of about 400 medical professionals. Their executive director saw me keynote a national conference of association executives two months ago.
That particular keynote was on a Friday in late September -- and the executives in the audience had just been pounded by a week of bad economic news. Since then, the drumbeat of negativity has become only more intense.
I got up that morning two months ago, took a look at the news headlines, and went out and did a barnburner of a speech for an audience of 500+, on the theme, "where's the growth, and how do we innovate for the future?" I was hugely upbeat, carried a positive message, and spoke to the audience at a very personal level about the necessity of having a strong personal compass to get through "this thing." I remember coming off stage, and thinking to myself, "wow, that was one helluva talk." As someone who earns a living on stage, you constantly self-assess as to how you've done.
I guess it did really strike a chord, since I'm still getting phone calls from folks who were in the room. So are the speakers bureaus who regularly book me into association events. The talk touched a lot of lives; it gave people an insight into the future that is all too easy to forget in this period of rapid global change.
People are hungering for a message of hope. Tomorrow, in my luncheon keynote, I'll take a good serious look at the current economic pain, but will also challenge the audience to think about the real, long term, substantive trends which provide an opportunity for future growth. A part of my talk is built on my "Where's the Growth?" document, originally released in February 2008. I just re-read the report, and can't think of where any of the fundamental assumptions are incorrect, except for one on "infrastructure." Maybe a company like Caterpillar might not see 30% growth because of overseas infrastructure spending.
But on the other hand, maybe they will! What is becoming increasingly apparent from the new US administration is that infrastructure spending is likely to be one of the key spending priorities to get the economy out of the funk and back into the future. That seems to be the approach of many governments worldwide. And hey, I had a post a few months ago, "Infrastructure is the new plastic." Although the essence of the post might seem a bit jaded given the current spending pullback, put the post into a 5 to 20 year perspective, and it is probably still bang on.
So for tomorrow and 2009, the key message?
Despite the challenges that you might find yourself in : THINK GROWTH!
My keynote tomorrow is titled, "Think Growth! The Good News for 2009"
Despite the relentless news headlines, there are many people out there who have an open mind about the future, and are actively innovating and thinking about how to capitalize upon it. I'm thrilled to be able to help them out.
More information:
- Read Where's the growth : global innovation opportunities for the long term
- Read Infrastructure is the new plastic
- Read 7 Things to Do Right Now as the Upturn Begins
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What's the future of education - and what should we do about it?
I've been pretty busy in the education sector. Two weeks ago, I provided an overview of key education trends for the Board and senior academic team of a major university. Next month, I'll be keynoting a conference with key leaders from Harvard, Yale, Vanderbilt and countless other leading colleges and universities from throughout the US. I'll also be spending time with the CEO and senior management team of a major player in the global education market.
All of these sessions have focused on the key trends impacting the world of education on a long term basis. It's certainly a far-reaching topic - education twenty years from now will likely look nothing like what it does today.
Consider the kids in this picture. Most of them will work in careers that don't yet exist; they'll have multiple careers throughout their lifetime; they'll constantly have to upgrade, enhance and rebuild their knowledge; they'll find themselves having to grab new knowledge on a "just-in-time" basis. Providing for such a reality requires a fundamental rethinking a lot of the current assumptions that are fundamental to the education system.
Where do I start such sessions? By challenging the audience or CEO team to ask themselves this question -- "what is the nature of the world our children will graduate into?"
I then build into that an overview of ten key trends impacting the future of education.
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Is your future-pendulum swinging too far?
Here's a video clip from a keynote in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, where I spoke of the mindset that is often found in the world of agriculture -- in that there are "two types of farmers." Ask yourself -- no matter what industry you are in -- whether you see a similar mindset.
Then ask yourself if your own "future-positive" attitude has been sliding into the "apathetic / pessimistic" category as of late. Probably so!
But here's the thing: despite economic turmoil, there is still no lack of innovation in agriculture, as in many industries. Just read a bit of the backgrounder for this conference: agriculture is "currently in the midst of a technology explosion in plant science. Advances in genomics, combinatorial chemistry, high throughput screening, advanced formulation, environmental science and toxicology, precision breeding, crop transformation, nanotechnology, synthetic biology and bio-informatics are tools that will transform .... global agriculture in ways never before imagined. These technologies will also take agriculture beyond food and feed production, with applications in health, nutrition, medicine, energy, industrial materials and the environment."
You can't really disagree with anything there.
The challenge right now is that rapid global turmoil is challenging the ability of innovators -- such as those in the room tomorrow -- to keep momentum going; to see the the adoption of new ideas and methodologies. There's not a lot of innovation risk capital out there right now.
That's why a good part of message in the room tomorrow morning will focus on the "pendulum." It's likely that given fast paced economic events, far too many people are swinging over to the "apathetic/pessimistic camp," away from the "future-positive camp," and not thinking about the longer term implications of rapid-science driven innovation.
Back during the dot.com bust, many people convinced themselves there wasn't a lot of upside to come from technology. How wrong they were: their pendulum had swung too far. And that's what's going on in almost every single industry out there today. Innovators refuse to let that happen, and look for opportunities of disruptive innovation that they can pursue today.
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"Competing with analytics" - "the next billion dollar industry"
Last November, I released my "What Comes Next" trends perspective, outlining some of the significant trends that I believed would have the most impact in our longer term future. It's still worth a read, and I don't think the economic turmoil has changed anything written there.
So I admit I was surprised, given the massive quantity of doom-and-gloom thinking which is smothering creativity everywhere, when I came across this advertisement, offering a 3-day executive level course on 'Competing with Analytics." And right there, they've quoted my "What Comes Next" document, which was re-printed in Toronto, Canada's Globe and Mail earlier in January of this year: "Analytics is hot....it's where the next-billion dollar industries will be born."
I don't disagree with that assessment, and neither does IBM CEO Sam Palmisano.
As quoted widely, and from an article in eWeek, in early November he made a speech in which he "called on the next administration to invest more money in refurbishing the electronic grid system to reduce the amount of energy required to power it, make better use of information technology to reinvent the way healthcare is provided and green technology investments that would enhance traffic and mass transit systems to make everybody who depends on these systems more efficient."
Which, if you study it, revolves around analytics, linked to infrastructure. Where's the growth? We all know where it is!
Obviously Sam is a bit self-serving with his call to action, but the truth is IBM is one of many companies that is at the forefront of smart infrastructure development.
There's lots of growth out there. Innovators stay focused on opportunity, the future, and educating themselves on the trends that are going to have real impact in the future. Ten years back, you'll look at this advertisement and think -- "man, those guys were on to something."
I think I'll write the folks running the 3-day course and see if they will give me a complimentary admission. (-;
More information
- "What Comes Next: A Trends Perspective for the Future"
- Competing with Analytics course Web site
- Time for a new digital deal - eWeek
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CEO insight: "We've got the survival thing down. Now we're into phase two."
I was in a conference call yesterday with the CEO of a global organization ; I'll be doing a leadership session with them this winter. It's one of several pre-planning calls that I'll do with this client as I shape my remarks for their meeting.
I love the clarity of the CEO mind. At one point early in the call, he stated how quickly they're transitioning through fast-paced economic events.
"We established three strategic priorities. Number one, survive. Number two, innovate. Number three, grow. We've got the survival thing down. Now we're into phase two."
Phase two is the reason why they are having this leadership meeting, which has just been pulled together over the last several weeks. My role is that I'll provide them with an overview of key trends to think about; how I see other organizations dealing with fast paced economic change, not to mention my fundamental insight on "innovating in the high velocity economy."
The comments of this particular CEO certainly outlines the stark reality of the speed of the global economic pullback.
Yet, it also offers up some evidence to my theory that some organizations are going to come out of "this thing" quicker than most people think. Organizations that focus on innovation can act faster than they did in previous recessions. They've learned how to be more collaborative; they can share ideas and insight faster; they can react and re-react based on fast paced trends. The result is that they can try out a variety of strategies to re-align their business for new realities.
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Innovation, the auto industry and the new reality
I dug this clip out from my July 2008 keynote in Sydney, Australia -- it's a good, quick hit on the different approaches to innovation in manufacturing.
Way back in 2003, I started talking about the "car company of the future," in the context of a "Google car." The clip seems timely now, as does a posting in July related to the video clip.
More information
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It's January 15, 2020: What Have We Learned About Healthcare in the Last Decade?
On December 8th, the 4th annual World HealthCare Innovation and Technology Conference 2008 will open in Washington, DC. The afternoon keynote address, by Newt Gingrich, former Speaker, U.S. House of Representatives, is built on the theme of "Innovation, Technology and Competition: Transitioning to a 21st Century Intelligent Health System."
I'm quite certain that Mr. Gingrich will offer some compelling thoughts on how to fix health care. And yet I'm certain that the prescription he offers will be much of the same old thinking that seems to dominate the health care agenda.
I'm the closing keynote speaker, on Wednesday, December 10th. I'm honored to speak at an event that includes Mr. Gingrich and other luminaries such as Scott McNealy, Chairman and Co-Founder, Sun Microsystems and Colin Angle, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder, iRobot.
What am I focussing on? My keynote will stress that right now is the time for big, bold, transformative thinking in the world of health care. We're on the edge of something pretty big, both in terms of the depths of the challenge, and yet with the scope of the innovative solutions and thinking that are coming to the marketplace. That's an important message, because it's hard to be an innovator right now anywhere, particularly within the health care industry.
Part of my job is to transform ideas -- so I just wrote an entry for the blog for this global conference, writing from the year 2020, looking back at what we learned in the previous twelve years. Here's what I wrote in 2020 about why the mindset of 2008 made for difficulties with innovative thinking:
At the time, the economic malaise that was settling in had caused most innovators to shrink away, convinced their ideas for the future had no place and time for consideration. Fear, mediocrity and staid thinking ruled the health care agenda; everyone spoke of applying the same old band-aid solutions in a different way to the same problems, with no obvious results in sight.
But where did we really end up with health care by 2020? Take a look and read the blog.
More information- It's January 15, 2020: What Have We Learned About Healthcare in the Last Decade?
- Future Medicine: Prescriptions for 21st Century Health Care
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What's next with financial, insurance and banking services?
This dude to the right? He's about to inherit a whole whack of money.
Indeed, before the financial meltdown in the last month, the slides I used at a wide variety of financial, banking and insurance conferences noted that the issue of inter-generatlonal wealth transfer is a huge challenge and opportunity. Estimates suggest that we'll see $12 to $18 trillion in money moving from one generation to another in the next 12 years ..... put that up against US GDP of $12 trillion. Cut in half for the stock market crash, and it is still a staggering number!
By 2053, the number will total $130 trillion - and the funds will move to a far more independent, financially savvy, technically sophisticated generation.
How do you maintain your relevance to this next generation customer? Through innovation.
Here's something of interest: despite the caustic conditions throughout the global banking and insurance industry, there are still a huge number of senior executives who are focused on the key trends that will impact them in the future. They do know the one thing that I know to be true: one day the volatility in the banking and insurance sector will have gone away. Things will have calmed down, and we'll have a banking, insurance and financial sector that is "back to normal." Or, at least, a "new normal."
And we also do know this: once we come out of "this thing," organizations will be back to the old-fashioned, pre-hedge-fund-derivative-fuelled ways of making money: by coming up with innovative new financial products and services that solve the problems of customers; by excelling at customer service; by launching and nurturing innovative new brands that resonate with customers; through deep, fast and transformative marketing campaigns that form unique relationships with customers. In other words, innovation will be the most critical measure of future success in the banking and insurance sector.
So how do we get there? I've had a few leadership retreats in the last two months with a number of global and national financial groups who are already thinking about these issues; they've asked me in for my thoughts on linking future trends to an innovation agenda as part of a leadership offsite. (Obviously, given fast paced trends, I'm not going into a list of companies. Suffice it to say, there are some senior leadership teams who are busy ensuring that their companies are ready for the next phase in financial services.)
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"I'll pay you a premium if you can save me money!"
That's the new value proposition for today, and you'll do well to think about the phrase as you look to grow or maintain your top line.
The number one concern for many organizations today (beyond mere survival for some) is cost reduction.
If you can give them the chance to do this quickly, they'll be willing to pay you a premium to do so.
This line of thinking came to line when I spent time two weeks ago in Silicon Vally. I was there to speak to a group of CIO's from throughout the hi-tech industry.
I met a client from a few years back in the hotel lobby while checking in. He's now involved in a different IT venture. While catching up on things, I realized that this was the exact value proposition that his new organization was selling.
They've got a solution that, when implemented, can help organizations save quite a bit of money on their overall technology spend, Given the scope of the potential savings, and the fact that this company has maintained growth despite economic turmoil, they've got a key innovation strategy nailed.
You can learn from this line of thinking. The key things to think about:
- how can you partner up with your customers to help them achieve cost savings with what they do?
- how can you help them quickly achieve those cost savings : faster, say, than in the alternate economy of a few months past? Remember, faster is better.
- are there changes that you might make to your product/service line that can help to accelerate cost savings?
- can you innovate like mad -- thinking about what you do and how you do it -- to generate cost savings for those who rely upon you? you do it -- to generate cost savings for those who rely upon you?
Think about it in the context of any industry. If you are in travel/hospitality, and you offer cost savings with what you are selling, you've got a leg up on the competition. If you are selling a service, get the potential cost savings that the service provides out front, and clearly defined -- highlight them. If you are selling an industry solution, re-examine the cost savings that your solution provides -- and see what you can do to make them bigger.
Think about the phrase, and look for opportunity in it.
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100 Days of Innovation: Innovators master faster markets because they master fast failure
Think about it.
Google announced today that they were shutting down Lively, their Second Life 'wannabe.'
They brought the product to market earlier this summer. So it survived only about four months, before Google decided it wasn't going to work, and moved on. Noted Google's blog: "We've also always accepted that when you take these kinds of risks not every bet is going to pay off."
I was on a mailing list today where some folks were discussing this; they seemed to be shocked that Google would make such a decision in haste.
I wrote back, with what I think is a critical lesson on innovation.
- Innovators fail fast.
- Innovators who fail fast learn faster.
- Innovators who learn faster from faster failure master faster markets.
- Innovators master faster markets because they master fast failure.
And that's all you need to know about innovation. Or at least, one critical bit of knowledge in an ongoing commentary around 100 Days of Innovation.
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Kicking off 2009 with innovation as the CORE STRATEGY!
I've been confirmed as the opening keynote speaker for the 14th Annual Portfolio Management for New Products & Services Conference in Fort Lauderdale, February 2009.
The event is sponsored by the Product Development and Management Association, the membership of which are individuals responsible for product and service innovation throughout the corporate world globally, as well as from within the world of academia. It's a pretty influential crowd, and I'm honored that I will be able to share my insight with them. Previous keynote speakers have included G Lafley, CEO, Procter & Gamble; Mads Nipper, SVP of Product & Marketing Development, Lego Group; Gary Loveman, CEO & President, Harrah's Entertainment; and Tom Stewart, Former Editor in Chief, Harvard Business Review, among others. The PDMA is the publisher of the renowned Journal of Product Innovation Management, which is arguably the must-read academic journal that covers the latest issues with new product and service development.
This year, the conference theme tends to revolve around my entire focus on "innovating faster" -- "creating a high performance environment to fuel strategic growth and operational excellence."
"In the changing global economy it gets harder every day to develop winning portfolios that drive long term business value. The 14th Annual Portfolio Management for New Products & Services Conference will present a critical 360 degree view of portfolio management from the discovery phase straight through to commercialization. Learn to innovate faster, optimize resources, select the right projects, and ultimately develop a high performance environment that fuels growth & organizational excellence regardless of the economic conditions"...
The issue of faster time-to-market has become increasingly important with fast-paced economic change. With all the volatility, consumer choice can change quickly ; brand image can shift radically ; execution becomes critical. I'll focus on a variety of themes as to how I see organizations doing this.
Here's a key message in advance of the conference: it can be tough, right now, to be an innovator, particularly as organizations deal with the economic crisis. But, the big question is: do you start/continue to innovate now, or do you wait until conditions improve?
To me, the choice is obvious. I detailed this in my blog post, The Seven Stages of Economic Grief. I also addressed the issue in another earlier blog post, A Memo to the CEO, in which I stressed the need for a continued focus on innovation despite challenging times.
I think they are well worth a read again.
More information:
- Innovation and the "Seven Stages of Economic Grief?"
- Read the Memo to the CEO
- Visit the 2009 PDMA conference web site.
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Retail and consumer product innovation: a report from NYC
A few weeks ago, I keynoted an event for the Readers Digest Food & Entertainment group (who publish Everyday with Rachel Ray, and own and manage the popular online social network recipe site, AllRecipes.com) in New York City. The audience consisted of executives and creative types from Madison Ave advertising agencies, food and packaging companies and other organizations.
They've released a summary of the overall day; in addition to my own insight, participants included Katie Lee Joel (pictured on the right), author of the Comfort Table; as well as "supermarket guru" Phil Lampert.
I spoke to a variety of trends that are impacting retail and food markets; for example, the trend in which in store display technology -- a "new influencer" -- will come to influence how shoppers shop, faster than we think:
This new shopper is not only more scattered and more connected, but also faster -- scanning 12 feet of shelf space on average per second.In-store influencers will now evolve at the pace of the iPhone and the Blackberry, challenging marketers to keep up with the pace. Faster is the new innovation and innovation isn't just about new product design - it's about responding to fast-paced consumer change.
Marketing Implication: Marketers must work harder than ever to capture the attention of the consumer and make a connection. Brands must keep up with the pace of consumer change in order to stay relevant.
More information:
Read the RDA Food & Entertainings Consumer Food Symposium summary (PDF)
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Silicon Valley : Is innovation dead?
Last week, I spoke in Palo Alto for a a small, intimate dinner of a number of CIO's for a variety of companies based in Silicon Valley. The focus of the talk was "how to provide for a culture and focus on innovation during a down market?"
I spoke to this issue from a number of perspectives. One issue I touched on was the inevitability of a rebound in the fortune of IT. If we cast our minds out two to five years, or perhaps even sooner, there are certain key trends in which we see a massive amount of innovation:
- pervasive connectivity: we've barely scratched the surface of the era in which everyday devices gain connectivity and intelligence. The Internet enabled thermostat in my home is but a harbinger of what is yet to come. With it's own Web browser, it has become a fascinating tool by which energy usage can be more closely monitored. The same device is deployed throughout the Arby's chain, and offers a significant new method of controlling energy-spend.
- continued growth of mobile: One recent survey of consumers suggested that while they might be willing to give up buying the latest plasma TV, there was no way they'd give up mobile or the Internet. Mobile is weaving itself into daily life, sophisticated platforms are finally here, devices are fashion, developers are on board in a big way, and the emerging applications are either real and useful, or just a tremendous bit of fun.
- location intelligence: we're barely scratching the surface with this one. Every device around us is becoming connected (pervasive connectivity), and we'll gain knowledge as to its status through sensory awareness. Not only that : we'll know exactly where it is. Search for "location intelligence professionals" online, and you'll discover a group of people who understand how unique our future is set to be.
- computational analytics: I've written about this before, in the context of this being "the next billion dollar industry." I remain some of the biggest challenges we face and the solutions that we find for them -- in terms of transportation, energy and the environment -- will come from applying massive computing power and complex alogorithms to them. Think about smart highway infrastructure as an example: it would be ludicrous to not believe that we will see 5, 10, 15 or 20% incremental increases in energy conservation that will come from ever-more automated traffic systems.
- staggering new mass markets: six months ago, it was believed that in the next 10 years, 1 billion people worldwide would move into the middle class. Maybe it's only half that now : who knows? But 500 million is still a staggering number. There is plenty of potential for connectivity, mobile, hardware and software to newly emerging mass markets.
- bio-connectivity: if I were a betting man, I'd have my money on this trend. Simply put, the global health care system is massively broken. Ten years out, home health care will pre-dominate, supported by a sophisticated infrastructure of smart health care energy devices. Yes, I've written about this trend on this blog too; see below.
- transformational thinking: an entire generation has been stuck in an older paradigm of how to network; the election of a younger President, wired to the nation and the world, who thinks, interacts, moves, plans, and acts differently, sets even more velocity to the power of connectivity. The Internet, mobile, social networking and blogs changed an entire presidential race; they're set to change everything else in society on a continuous basis.
More information:
- Read about what happens When Thermostats get connected
- Read the article about bio-connectivity, The Doctor is in around the clock
- Read the article Minds of their own
- Read "Bioconnectivity and the rapid emergence of new markets"
- Read the article Command and Control - Opportunity Awaits Companies that Master Hyperconnectivity
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The economy and leadership: strategy meetings are happening NOW
I continue to see a lot of activity with inquiries and bookings for senior management / CEO leadership meetings.This confirms my belief, which I have been posting in this blog, that there are many organizations out there who are determined to stay ahead of fast paced economic trends. Here's an example of a client request that came through this morning; they are looking for insight on:
- how can an organization succeed given the current world and marketplace realities by thinking and doing things differently relative to the following:
- how to use, and deploy and share resources in new creative ways from a variety of places to serve the most critical needs or during the most critical times
- how to employ a a non-traditional structure or organization design that is creative, flexible, different and nimble to support critical business priorities
- how to leverage key capabilities in new and different ways, either through developing them internally, outsourcing them or partnering in a type of hybrid manner
- someone who will provide a thought provoking point of view, with inspiration around new and different approaches to achieving the above
- can speak to trends in this topic arena, yet also cite some examples of companies that are acting or behaving in some of these innovative ways to achieve results
- someone who can push the thought agenda yet provide information that is deemed doable, possible, realistic and not too extreme of an approach
- a person who can deliver the information in a small group/ intimate setting with a "working session" format vs a large key note "speaker" address forum
I'm off later today to keynote just such a leadership meeting for a major accounting firm in the DC area; I just returned from Palo Alto where I gave a similar talk to a high-level group of Silicon Valley executives. More on that particular talk later, because I've been busy writing a post about "what comes next with tech."
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10 fundamental trends that don't change with the meltdown
You and I know that the headline on the left is going to run in newspapers and mainstream media one day. The BIG question is when.
So what are the trends that will drive future growth? Off the top of my head, there are several:
- growth markets will continue to emerge. Back in the 19th century, the head of the US Patent Office stated that "everything that can be invented has been invented." Such silliness. Right now, there are hundreds of thousands of new products, markets, industries and ideas being built and explored. The future isn't over. It's arrival has just slowed to a degree.
- leaders in existing markets will grow through innovation. My own gut feel is that there are a lot of organizations out there approaching this recession differently. They're innovating in their markets; they're working on customer retention; they're investing in customer service in order to keep competitive; they're talking about how to grow in a down market. I'm certainly seeing this given my advance bookings going forward. People want to talk about innovation and the future. That's a great sign that the recovery is underway.
- health care will see significant transformation, not to mention spending: health care is transitioning to a system of predictive medicine. This is a huge, long term, 20 year trend, but has big implications with the emergence of new careers, industries, professions, and companies -- DNA based medicine is a massive change. On top of that, the mere level of spending that is going to occur in managing the looming health care crisis will drive all kinds of growth, though the funding part of the equation will remain a big problem. The result? Lots of innovative thinking as to how to solve huge problems with unique solutions.
- green and energy will continue have more momentum. Some argue that the meltdown will defer everything having to do with these two efforts. I disagree; I think the corporate sector has discovered the cost benefit that comes from green projects, and so they will continue to invest, which will drive innovation. And I think globally, we've passed the point where people and their leaders believe that doing the same old thing as the past is going to continue in the future. I don't see leading edge research into solar, wind, and other alternatives slowing down any time soon. And the fascinating thing is that there is a lot of backyard, garage tinkering going on right now, and that's where the next product/market breakthroughs will come from.
- technology will continue to hyper-innovate: I've got six generations of Blackberry's that span about six years or less. They've got a slew of new products coming out just this month : they've got a very fast innovation culture. Likewise, iPhone's have become the coolest fashion statement on the planet for the younger demographic. The Internet-enabled thermostat I have in my home and chalet is the first step in a huge wave of pervasive connectivity. I don't see hi-tech innovation and R&D slowing down. Indeed, during the last recession, some of the biggest innovations -- the iPod -- emerged from the minds of those inventing the future. There are a lot more billion-dollar markets still to emerge.
- agility and flexibility will dominate: In the next several years, the manufacturing industry -- globally and locally -- will learn to do what Honda has done: focus on the rapid assembly and reassembly of capabilities, so as to more quickly change models and products to respond to fast paced consumer demand. As they do so, they'll undergo a fundamental transformation in their thinking, structure and capabilities that will ensure their success.
- the global idea machine will continue to influence innovation. Look, the Internet continues to have a profound impact on everything we do. Scientific discovery is speeding up; new discoveries continue to go forward at a furious pace. Eco-building design concepts are debated, shared, and then go global in an instant. From the global mind comes unprecedented innovation, new products, new companies and new industries.
- the next generation takes over. The boomers are a dispirited bunch right now; there's not a lot of passion and enthusiasm with some of them to change the future, particularly given the status of their 401K's. Some in the younger generation are witnessing their first ever generation, and its' probably pretty terrifying. (This is my 4th, so I'm an old hand at this.) Yet, they're a hardy, entrepreneurial bunch, who have grown up with a mindset that inhales change, pursues multiple different opportunities, and collaborates like nothing we've ever seen before. I think they'll shake things up pretty quickly.
- A faster world happens, well, faster. Simply put, faster news cycles means that people get through difficult periods faster, at least in terms of mindset. Re-read my post about the '7 stages of economic grief' and share it around. Think about whether you think people are moving to the acceptance phase quicker. I believe they are, and I think this faster attitude shift, compared to a slower pace of acceptance in previous recessions, means that innovation will drive us out of this faster than we expect.
More information:
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Rethinking innovation models - from Disney, to tin cans, to automobiles
At this event, I was speaking to an audience of advertising executives, food companies, packaging companies and others about how innovation models are shifting. Today, innovation is much more:
- partnership oriented - think Disney!
- flexible in terms of solutions - think tin-cans!
- faster in terms of market response to rapidly changing consumer demand
The key point : faster is the new fast -- because consumer choice changes faster than ever before.
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Moving beyond the meltdown - linking opportunity to innovation
Frame of mind -- and the tone set by senior management -- is a critical factor right now. I wrote about this in Ready, Set, Done, in a chapter titled "Key success factors for innovative organizations."
The first point I made is that innovative organizations have a growth orientation. Quoting from the book:
Growth orientation. They've managed to instill a culture that has everyone thinking about what can be done - they are forward oriented. It's a culture in which people are thinking less about the problems that have occurred, and more about the cool strategies that could be pursued. They don’t run 'change-management workshops': they have strategic sessions on 'growing the business.' It’s not an easy task, but innovative organizations have managed to get their people away from 'right now' to 'our next step'.They are focused on the opportunities of the future, not the challenges of the past. They are ready to pursue transformative change, built on top of a share vision. They are not busy examining what went wrong and why it happened -- they've already moved on to the next step.
They've moved beyond the "anger and denial" stage of economic grief, and are already busy, focused on innovation and the next steps!
More information:
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100 Days of Innovation - #3 : Check your speed
One of the key issues I point out when speaking about innovation strategies, is that organizations need to continually challenge themselves as to whether they can "act fast enough."
In other words, innovative organizations "check their speed." If they aren't responding quickly enough to rapid market, product, competitive and business model change, then they aren't following one of the key traits of successful innovators. If they aren't ensuring they are keeping up with rapid consumer and customer preference, service levels or marketing and branding innovation, they become an innovation laggard rather than a leader. If they can't collaborate and share knowledge as a team, in order to capitalize on new emerging opportunities or respond to threats, then they aren't operating at the right pace.
I was reminded of this point today, when I saw that Workplace Today, an HR focused publication, reprinted my article, Are We Thinking Fast Enough, which was originally published in Broadband magazine in 2006. The article was written for folks working in the telecom and hi-tech industries, and challenged them to "check their speed."
Looking back at the article, you can see the speed of change that has occurred. Take a look at the hi-tech gear that surrounds you, and think about quickly things become obsolete. In one of my cabinets in the home office, I've got about six generations of Blackberry devices. The first one looks absolutely ancient -- and yet, is from about 2001. I've also got an MP3 player from 1998 that could hold about five songs. It seems positively old-fashioned.
Such things are reminders that we live in a fast paced world -- and that innovators MUST check their speed in order to stay ahead in their markets. Here's the clincher -- it doesn't matter what industry I'm speaking too -- I can point people to similar degrees of high velocity change, and challenge them to think faster.
More information on the concept of "checking your speed":
- Read the original article Are we moving fast enough?
- Explore the concept of "thinking fast" in the blog section, "Faster"
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Moving Beyond the Meltdown: Aligning Yourself for Growth Through Innovation
If you study the screen carefully to the right, you'll note that the current slide from my deck states, "Time to market and corporate agility are the new corporate capabilities." In other words, it's your ability to keep an innovation-oriented focus in order to deal with the new challenges that surround you, that will define how well you will get through.
I've had a few recent keynotes that have built on this theme, using the title, "Moving Beyond the Meltdown: Aligning Yourself for Growth Through Innovation." Here's the session description that has been put together:
In the face of widespread economic volatility, organizations have three essential choices: they can panic, making rash decisions on structure, markets, investments; they can freeze and do nothing; or they can respond to rapid change through innovation, particularly with respect to strategies, structure, capabilities, markets, products, and activities.It's obvious there are quite a few CEO's and senior management groups who are organizing meetings quite quickly, so that they can share strategy, insight, and concepts on managing their way through the correction. I'm finding it fascinating to be on the receiving end of so many inquiries to participate; obviously, my message is striking a chord.Jim Carroll, one of the world's leading futurists, trends & innovation experts with clients such as Lincoln Financial, Caterpillar, the Walt Disney Organization and Nestle, shares his insight on the strategies that leading edge organizations are pursuing to stay ahead of the economy.
It's timely and critical insight! Many CEO's and senior executives understand that in addition to managing existing challenges, now is the time to focus on trends and the future. They know that they need to act quickly to establish an innovative mindset to get there intact. Jim provides his unique insight on staying ahead in volatile times, through his signature keynote addresses, after-dinner talks, discussions at small intimate management/Board meetings, or by speaking and participating in senior management and leadership meetings.
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What the CEO's are saying: "Six things we need to do"
If you want to understand what you should be doing right now, you keep your ears close to the ground, and listen to what others are talking about.
I've had a huge number of events in the last two months, since the economic contraction began. All of my keynotes and leadership sessions have focused on strategies to "stay out in front of this thing." I'm also quite often working with senior management, and get direct insight into what the CEO's are thinking. Here's what one CEO stated as the most important priorities through the next year, given the economic challenges:
- staff development and retention: keep the key staff engaged, innovative, and focused on the business.
- change leadership: many of my keynotes use a phrase from Rupert Murdoch: "The world is changing very fast. Big will not beat small anymore. It will be the fast beating the slow." That's particularly true now: organizations must "check their speed" and be able to evolve strategy, ideas, product and service very fast to keep up.
- client retention: absolutely critical. Obsess over the quality of client relationships. This is so important, I've got a separate blog entry on it.
- "make plan" -- we have a budget -- we need to meet it. We need to relentlessly focus on closing deals. We've got to be a partner to our customers; they are looking for comfort, and we can provide that to them. If it means we share the risk with them, we do that too.
- have fun: wellness, mental and otherwise, is going to be critical to everyone in the organization in getting through these times. Let's focus as a team, have fun, and move forward!
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The economy -- what I'm seeing happen RIGHT NOW
A month ago, I faced a very busy September and early October, and was out on the road keynoting a wide variety of events - a leadership event for a global law firm; an economic development conference; a symposium on consumer trends; a commercial real estate conference; a leadership session for a major bank and another for a telecom company; an event for a life insurance company; a meeting of pharmaceutical marketing executives; a food services company; a tourism conference; and many others -- all as the economic twists and turns evolved at a furious pace. Tomorrow, I'm off to New York to open a conference for professionals in the field of photography. More on that later.
All of these talks were immediately recast on the spot, to provide an outline of how the economy was going to evolve from this point out -- and how executives within these organizations should be thinking about the future in order to innovate ahead of fast-paced events.
The message has resonated in a huge way -- right now, people are clamoring for insight into the idea of "what comes next, and what should we do about it?" I have been stunned by the discussions post-presentation; I think the message of opportunity, and the necessity to quickly get beyond our economic shock and do things, is resonating in a huge way.
Having said that, my original suspicion during the last month of travels was that I was likely to see a slowdown in my own business, as organizations reacted and retrenched in light of the obvious recession around us.
I can now say that my suspicions were quite incorrect. In the last few weeks, I have seen a substantial - and I mean substantial -- number of queries for events, and a significant increase is confirmed bookings, from organizations who have decided that now is the time to focus on trends and the future, and to focus on how to establish an innovative mindset to get there intact.
There are several sources of new business:
- CEO's running a leadership session, previously planned or just now being scheduled, and who now realize that they need an expert who can focus on "what's really going on with the global economy, and what do we need to do to stay out in front."
- association executives who understand that in 2009, their members need a message of hope and inspiration, with specific, real, concrete guidance on how they can innovate their way out of this thing, and stay ahead of fast paced events
- mid-level managers who understand that now is a critical time to change the capabilities, agility, culture, and attitude of their team in order to maintain customer service excellence, customer retention levels, and other critical measures of success.
- marketing executives who realize that it is actually a good time to get in front of their customers with a clear, unequivocal message about their value, and how they can assist their customers as a partner.
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The seven stages of economic grief - when do you innovate?
Here's what I think is going on: there are many organizations entering a state of absolute paralysis. Idea factories are being turned off. The result is that we're not just entering an economic recession -- we're entering another idea recession, similar to what occurred with the last downturn starting in 2001.
What is so different time is the absolute speed with which ideas are shutting down -- the paralysis in some organizations at the leadership level is absolutely stunning. This got me thinking about the fast paced events of the last few weeks in the context of the seven stages of grief.
I came to realize, things have happened so fast that many organizations still find themselves in the "shock" and "denial" phase. They'll be the innovation laggards.
Then there are the innovation leaders. They're prepared to keep the idea factory running, maybe not at full tilt, but running nevertheless. They know that despite the fact that vast sections of the economy are tanking, there are still growth markets; opportunities to step ahead of your competitors. There are opportunities to attack new markets. To streamline operations, build new brands, grab customer mindshare in new ways.
There are plenty of opportunities to turn ideas into innovation. It all depends on where you want to place yourself on the scale of the seven stages of economic grief.
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It's back! Aggressive indecision! Here's how to kick it out!
Aggressive indecision! With all the economic turmoil, leaders, executives and staff have the "deer in the headlights" syndrome.
I spoke about this trend extensively on stage during the last recession in 2001-2002. People got into the message, and it restored their enthusiasm for the future and innovation.
In that spirit, I've resurrected the original clip on YouTube.
Take a look around you - at yourself, your co-workers, your organization, and the business world at large. What do you see? People mired in the thick mud of aggressive indecision. They tend to wait for absolutely perfect information which will help convince them that the time is right to make a decision, rather than making decisions based on imperfect information as they had done in the past. They'll take a look at the information they have, decide that it's just too darn risky to make a decision on what they see, and do nothing.Look, organizations that innovate and adapt at high speed, while trying to deal with the harsh new realities that surround them, have a good chance coming out the other side of this thing. On the other hand, if you let aggressive indecision rule your corporate culture, you are probably not going to do well.The result is an economy in which everyone seems to be stuck in a rut, unwilling and unable to move forward. The fact is, our confidence in the future has been shattered. Corporate nervousness has become the watchword, with the result that everyone is taking the easy way out: deal with uncertainty by doing nothing.
An era of "aggressive indecision:" a very dangerous attitude to have, given that organizations must be in a state of continuous innovation in order to cope with the rate of change that now surrounds us.
Share the video, and the original article around. Get out of your funk! Innovate!
More information:
- Read the original article Paralyzed by indecision: Just Do It
- Read Jim's blog entries on the global economy
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How do you innovate in a volatile economy?
When the Readers Digest Food & Entertainment Division, based in New York, went looking for a keynote speaker on marketing and advertising trends within the consumer goods sector, they went with Jim Carroll.
In an event co-sponsored with Advertising Age, the publisher of such innovative titles as Everyday with Rachel Ray wanted to provide a concise, inspirational but challenging overview of the trends impacting innovation, marketing and advertising within the food sector ... and decided that Jim's message on how to innovate at high-velocity was the ideal fit for their symposium.
Ironically, the event fell smack-dab in the middle of one of the wildest economic corrections that we've ever seen, and much of the discussion through the day focused on how to innovate in a fast-paced, ever more challenging economic environment.
I outlined how innovation-oriented organizations will use the economic challenges as an opportunity -- they'll examine the emergence of fast-paced trends, and will adjust their actions, products, services, and brand message accordingly.
Consider a few of the trends we're already seeing:
- The food consumer is now shifting their focus -- 71% of consumers are choosing to prepare meals at home instead of eating out as a result of the economic correction, Restaurant trips have decreased from 1.5 times a week in 2006, to 1.2 times today. (Food Marketing Institute US Grocery Shopper Trends 2008). There's a big opportunity to rapidly shift to in-house meals, from a branding and comfort perspective.
- Chef Katie-Lee Joel, who also spoke at the event (she's the author of the book The Comfort Table and a Top Chef judge on TV), affirmed this point, speaking of the trend in which "comfort food" -- feel-good food -- will once again take priority as people adjust their spending.
- other trends will pick up steam as people think more about their food consumption habits. For example, the trend to "local food" will pick up steam with the recession -- people will want to feel responsible when it comes to food choice and the environmental footprint related to particular food. A study in Australia found that the typical shopping basket of 29 supermarket food items had travelled an astounding 70,803kms! An unbelievable number that certainly causes a pause for thought!
It's a critical concept to think about during these times.
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Do you really need an innovation spark? How about a custom edition of Ready, Set, Done?
Since Ready, Set, Done: How to Innovate When Faster is the New Fast was published a year ago this week, it proved to be a book that has provided unique innovation guidance to thousands of people. And in many cases, the book has been purchased in bulk, with copies distributed to those in attendance at one of many keynote presentations or workshops through the year.
Many CEO's and event organizers have indicated that it would be great if they could tie their innovation message to that found within the book. To that end, we've done a few custom print runs during the year. We've now decided to formalize the process.
Effectively immediately, with an order of as small as 250 copies, we can offer you a custom edition of the book.
What you get:
The cost for a custom print run will range from $16-18 depending on volume, plus shipping costs. For a group of 250, that's a cost of just $4,000 to put in front of your staff, customers or association, a customized message with a very special book about innovation.
Video clip -- where's the opportunity? Where's the growth?
Given the rapid pace of global economic developments in the fall of 2008, it's interesting that the number of organizations bringing me in for a leadership or management event has increased. That's because, despite perilous economic times, CEO's in a variety of industries are working hard to ensure that their organization stays focused on growth. At these leadership meetings, I'm offering insight on growth markets and opportunities; innovation strategies to stay ahead in the downturn; and unique insight on how organizations are working hard to re-align their strategies and structure with fast paced market change. If you need to get your staff and team mindset in the right frame of mind for moving forward in this high velocity, rapidly changing economy, you might need this type of high level, energetic message. To help you get in the right frame of mind, here's a little motivational video clip from a recent keynote I did on stage in Sydney, Australia.
100 Days of Innovation - #2 - Go Upside Down
This is the lesson I learned from a large company in the consumer goods/entertainment space. They had traditionally been responsible for an innovation plan that went like this:
They then realized that trends and consumer choice was evolving so fast, that they no longer had a truly good grasp on the innovation agenda that they should be pursuing. They also came to realize they were taking product to retailers -- but the depth of insight from retailers meant that they saw entirely different product and market opportunities.
So what did they do? They went out side -- and learned how to work with the retailers, by having the retailers do much of the product innovation. Soon, the innovation pipeline worked like this:
Going upside-down is a powerful innovation concept -- it challenges you to do things differently. More important, it pushes you into a mindset where you are pursuing partnership oriented innovation, with the result that have better, fresh, unique, external insight.
All too often an organization loses its ability to innovate because it becomes very internally focused -- it can't see beyond its' own walls. People become narrow in their focus, and fail to see big opportunities.
Going upside-down changes this, in so many ways, and it's one of the most important innovation ideas that you can pursue.
More information:
Innovation - act fast - empower people!
Particularly given that right now, optics are really important.
(from iStockAnalyst) In this case, what could have been a PR disaster has turned into a smallish news story barely covered anywhere. That's great innovation.
100 Days of Innovation - Get Out in Front
Obviously, the economy weighs heavily into my observations on stage, and in the questions in the Q&A.
The keynotes have been built around my theme of 7 Things You Need to Do Right Now: Aligning The Fast Future to Your Current Strategy.
One of the 7 Things that has stood out - in common with all these organizations -- focuses on the reality that with an economic correction underway
Contact Jim Carroll for details, to explore this fascinating new opportunity.
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When thinking about new product or service development, don't do it in isolation. Seek advice and guidance from your business partners -- or, even let them drive the innovation agenda.
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Empowering staff and partners to make quick decisions is an essential component of innovating in the high-velocity economy.
RBC Plaza's Grand Opening is on, but, Um, About Those Sky Divers ...
Part of my consistent innovation message through the last several years -- "faster is the new fast" -- challenges organizations to think whether they can move at the fast pace required of them in today's high velocity world. Innovation isn't just about new products and design -- it's about challenging yourself as to how you operate, act, compete, change and do things differently to keep up with rapid trends.
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The last few weeks have seen a variety of keynotes for leadership meetings -- for a telecom company, food services organization, commercial real estate & property management firm, among others. These have involved audiences from 250+ to 800+ executives.